Risks from solar-powered groundwater irrigation.

Emissions reductions may not meet expectations, and groundwater use will likely increase.

Balancing national economic policy outcomes for sustainable development.

The 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim at jointly improving economic, social, and environmental outcomes for human prosperity and planetary health. However, designing national economic policies that support advancement across multiple Sustainable Development Goals is hindered by the complexities of multi-sector economies and often conflicting policies. To address this, we introduce a national-scale design framework that can enable policymakers to sift through complex, non-linear, multi-sector policy spaces to identify efficient policy portfolios that balance economic, social, and environmental goals. The framework combines economy-wide sustainability simulation and artificial intelligence-driven multiobjective, multi-SDG policy search and machine learning. The framework can support multi-sector, multi-actor policy deliberation to screen efficient policy portfolios. We demonstrate the utility of the framework for a case study of Egypt by identifying policy portfolios that achieve efficient mixes of poverty and inequality reduction, economic growth, and climate change mitigation. The results show that integrated policy strategies can help achieve sustainable development while balancing adverse economic, social, and political impacts of reforms.

Irrigation improves weight-for-height z-scores of children under five, and Women's and Household Dietary Diversity Scores in Ethiopia and Tanzania.

Evidence on the potential for agricultural intensification to improve nutrition has grown considerably. While small-scale irrigation is a key factor driving agricultural intensification in sub-Saharan Africa, its impact on nutrition has not yet been thoroughly explored. In this study, we assess the impact of adoption of small-scale irrigation in Ethiopia and Tanzania on household and women's dietary diversity, as well as children's nutrition. We use two rounds of primary data collected from irrigators and nonirrigators in Ethiopia and Tanzania. We used a panel fixed effects econometric approach to control for observed household, women and children specific characteristics as well as observed and unobserved time-invariant confounding factors. The results show that among Ethiopian households who reported having faced drought, women in irrigating households have higher Women's Dietary Diversity Score (WDDS) compared to women in nonirrigating households. In Tanzania, women in irrigating households have higher WDDS compared to nonirrigators and the impact of irrigation on WDDS more than doubles among households facing drought. In addition, among Tanzanian households who reported having faced a drought shock, irrigating households have higher Household Dietary Diversity Score compared to nonirrigators. Children in irrigating households in Ethiopia have weight-for-height z-scores (WHZ) that are 0.87 SDs higher, on average, than WHZ of children in nonirrigating households. In Tanzania, irrigation leads to higher WHZ-scores in children under-five among households who reported having experienced a drought in the 5 years preceding the survey. The study shows small-scale irrigation has a strong effect on households' economic access to food and on nutritional outcomes of women and children.

Seasonal variation in maternal dietary diversity is reduced by small-scale irrigation practices: A longitudinal study.

Some agricultural practices, such as irrigation, have the potential to buffer seasonal dietary gaps and through increased production and consumption improve diets, particularly of the rural poor relying on subsistence farming but also for rural and urban households purchasing irrigated produce on local markets. The study aimed to evaluate the effect of seasonality and irrigation on women's diet in rural Ethiopia. Using a longitudinal study design, three rounds of surveys were conducted among women of reproductive age (15-49 years). Data on socioeconomic status, food consumption and haemoglobin concentration was collected. Energy and nutrient intakes were estimated using an interviewer-administered multiple-pass 24-h recall. Women's dietary diversity score (WDDS), the proportion of women meeting the minimum dietary diversity for women (MDDW), haemoglobin concentration, the prevalence of anaemia and energy and nutrients intakes were compared between irrigators and nonirrigators and by season. Associations between MDDW/WDDS and irrigation status were assessed using fixed-effect models, after adjusting for covariates. WDDS was low (3-4 out of 10 food groups) and exhibited high seasonal variability (p < 0.05). Diets were predominantly cereal-based, with little consumption of nutrient-dense foods like fruits and animal source foods. High seasonal variability in energy, protein, vitamin C, calcium, iron and zinc intakes were observed (p < 0.01). Irrigators were more likely to meet the MDDW than women from non-irrigating households (p < 0.05). No cases of malaria were reported from the three rounds of screening. There is a high seasonal variation in women's diet, but this could be partly offset by irrigation practices.

Perspective: The Importance of Water Security for Ensuring Food Security, Good Nutrition, and Well-being.

Water security is a powerful concept that is still in its early days in the field of nutrition. Given the prevalence and severity of water issues and the many interconnections between water and nutrition, we argue that water security deserves attention commensurate with its importance to human nutrition and health. To this end, we first give a brief introduction to water insecurity and discuss its conceptualization in terms of availability, access, use, and stability. We then lay out the empirical grounding for its assessment. Parallels to the food-security literature are drawn throughout, both because the concepts are analogous and food security is familiar to the nutrition community. Specifically, we review the evolution of scales to measure water and food security and compare select characteristics. We then review the burgeoning evidence for the causes and consequences of water insecurity and conclude with 4 recommendations: 1) collect more water-insecurity data (i.e., on prevalence, causes, consequences, and intervention impacts); 2) collect better data on water insecurity (i.e., measure it concurrently with food security and other nutritional indicators, measure intrahousehold variation, and establish baseline indicators of both water and nutrition before interventions are implemented); 3) consider food and water issues jointly in policy and practice (e.g., establish linkages and possibilities for joint interventions, recognize the environmental footprint of nutritional guidelines, strengthen the nutrition sensitivity of water-management practices, and use experience-based scales for improving governance and regulation across food and water systems); and 4) make findings easily available so that they can be used by the media, community organizations, and other scientists for advocacy and in governance (e.g., tracking progress towards development goals and holding implementers accountable). As recognition of the importance of water security grows, we hope that so too will the prioritization of water in nutrition research, funding, and policy.

Quantifying the Sustainability of Water Availability for the Water-Food-Energy-Ecosystem Nexus in the Niger River Basin.

Water, food, energy, and the ecosystems they depend on interact with each other in highly complex and interlinked ways. These interdependencies can be traced particularly well in the context of a river basin, which is delineated by hydrological boundaries. The interactions are shaped by humans interacting with nature, and as such, a river basin can be characterized as a complex, coupled socioecological system. The Niger River Basin in West Africa is such a system, where water infrastructure development to meet growing water, food, and energy demands may threaten a productive and vulnerable basin ecosystem. These dynamic interactions remain poorly understood. Trade-off analyses between different sectors and at different spatial scales are needed to support solution-oriented policy analysis, particularly in transboundary basins. This study assesses the impact of climate and human/anthropogenic changes on the water, energy, food, and ecosystem sectors and characterizes the resulting trade-offs through a set of generic metrics related to the sustainability of water availability. Results suggest that dam development can mitigate negative impacts from climate change on hydropower generation and also on ecosystem health to some extent.

The role of Latin America's land and water resources for global food security: environmental trade-offs of future food production pathways.

One of humanity's major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC's agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)-a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector-to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths.

Agro-ecology, household economics and malaria in Uganda: empirical correlations between agricultural and health outcomes.

BACKGROUND: This paper establishes empirical evidence relating the agriculture and health sectors in Uganda. The analysis explores linkages between agricultural management, malaria and implications for improving community health outcomes in rural Uganda. The goal of this exploratory work is to expand the evidence-base for collaboration between the agricultural and health sectors in Uganda. METHODS: The paper presents an analysis of data from the 2006 Uganda National Household Survey using a parametric multivariate Two-Limit Tobit model to identify correlations between agro-ecological variables including geographically joined daily seasonal precipitation records and household level malaria risk. The analysis of agricultural and environmental factors as they affect household malaria rates, disaggregated by age-group, is inspired by a complimentary review of existing agricultural malaria literature indicating a gap in evidence with respect to agricultural management as a form of malaria vector management. Crop choices and agricultural management practices may contribute to vector control through the simultaneous effects of reducing malaria transmission, improving housing and nutrition through income gains, and reducing insecticide resistance in both malaria vectors and agricultural pests. RESULTS: The econometric results show the existence of statistically significant correlations between crops, such as sweet potatoes/yams, beans, millet and sorghum, with household malaria risk. Local environmental factors are also influential- daily maximum temperature is negatively correlated with malaria, while daily minimum temperature is positively correlated with malaria, confirming trends in the broader literature are applicable to the Ugandan context. CONCLUSIONS: Although not necessarily causative, the findings provide sufficient evidence to warrant purposefully designed work to test for agriculture health causation in vector management. A key constraint to modeling the agricultural basis of malaria transmission is the lack of data integrating both the health and agricultural information necessary to satisfy the differing methodologies used by the two sectors. A national platform for collaboration between the agricultural and health sectors could help align programs to achieve better measurements of agricultural interactions with vector reproduction and evaluate the potential for agricultural policy and programs to support rural malaria control.

Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: household strategies and determinants.

Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given dependence on agricultural production and limited adaptive capacity. Based on farm household and Participatory Rural Appraisal data collected from districts in various agroecological zones in Kenya, this paper examines farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt. The results show that households face considerable challenges in adapting to climate change. While many households have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to climate change (in particular, changing planting decisions), few households are able to make more costly investments, for example in agroforestry or irrigation, although there is a desire to invest in such measures. This emphasizes the need for greater investments in rural and agricultural development to support the ability of households to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their future well-being.